Share of Solar power in the German electricity mix increases to 70 percent by 2016. Prognos AG: As a result, electricity tariffs to increase by nearly two percent
The German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar) estimates that the share of solar power in the German electricity mix will increase in the next four years by 70 percent, from around four percent in 2012 to approximately seven percent in the year 2016. As a result, according to Prognos AG, electricity prices will increase by nearly two percent. This is the central finding of a brief expert report presented together with Prognos AG in Berlin today. “The cuts in support that have already been implemented have brought the costs of the expansion of solar power under control”, according to Carsten Körnig, Chief Executive Officer of the German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar).
“The transformation of the energy system costs money, particularly in its initial phase. The investments associated with the continued expansion of solar power, however, will hardly increase, and they will pay off,” explained Körnig in Berlin today. Many of those who are now calling for more cuts in support don’t realize that the significant increase in the number of solar power systems over the past three years has already led to a reduction of support rates by half. In 2012, support for solar power will be cut by another 27 percent, in accordance with the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), which was recently tightened in the summer of 2011. As a result, support for solar power is now falling at twice the rate as in the previous year (reduction in support 2011: 13 percent). Körnig: “The cost controls that the legislator has applied to the support for solar power are working.”
Prognos AG also examined the possible effects on electricity prices of a fixed volume quota (“cap”), as is currently being discussed in political circles. The result: By 2016, combined savings would amount to just one percent of the household electricity price. “This stands in contract to drastic losses in terms of jobs, capital investment, industry turnover, technological advantages and tax income,” according to Frank Peter, Project Manager for Energy Industry at Prognos AG.
As Körnig pointed out, photovoltaics and the associated advantages are essential for the transformation of the energy system. “Power generation that is close to the point of consumption, a high degree of acceptance by the population at large, a fast pace of expansion, all accompanied by rapidly falling costs – the solar industry is delivering on its promise to radically reduce costs. As a next step, in 2013 we will be on par with the support level of large ocean-based windfarms,” said Körnig. By 2020, the solar industry intends to increase its share of electricity consumption in Germany to over 10 percent, in the process solidifying its competitive position.